the trends and drivers that affect the future of irib in 20 years vision of iran

in this study, irib regarding to the position and its functions of as a medium of communication has been analyzed and tried to identify the national and global key factors, in the next ten years to 1404, influencing it in political, social, economic and technological environment and then found out the organizational capabilities. therefore the future situation of a very large and very complex organization will be modeled that could help the policy makers to plan and choose a right strategy.   in the media industry three part: competition, audience and position of government and regulatory have been reviewed.in macro all the steepv environment was analyzed. therefore we found 1368 variables. these variables are then refined through several stages and were categorized by 43 experts to prepare the delphi method questionnaire. in the first round of delphi, 138 selected variables, was asked. at the end 27 key trends and 29 driving forces recognized.